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Will Asia welcome the "oil price dividend"?
International oil prices have dropped by $12 per barrel since the beginning of 2025. Morgan Stanley believes that if this decline continues, the Crude Oil Product burden in Asia will decrease from the current 3.1% to 2.3%. For every $10 per barrel drop in oil prices, the overall current account balance in Asia is expected to improve GDP by 0.4 percentage points.
A structural interest rate cut is still a rate cut! The central bank officially announces the first comprehensive reduction in the structural MMF policy tool interest rate, saving more than 15 billion yuan in bank funding costs each year.
① The central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rate of structured MMF monetary policy tools. Industry insiders stated that structural interest rate cuts are also interest rate cuts, which help strengthen the policy incentives for commercial Banks. ② The central bank proposed to establish 500 billion yuan for re-loaning to service Consumer and Retirement, increase the re-loaning quota for Technology innovation and technological transformation, and increase the re-loaning quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses, guiding Financial Institutions to accelerate loan disbursement in related fields.
The central bank: Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio for Financial Institutions will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points.
The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for Financial Institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding Financial Institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio) starting from May 15, 2025, and to lower the reserve requirement ratio for Autos financing companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points.
After ongoing fluctuations, the market may be nearing a directional choice, with the AI, Siasun Robot&Automation, and other Technology growth sectors likely to rebound.
Looking back at the market situation before the festival, the market has been in a state of fluctuating consolidation, and the atmosphere of market observation remains quite strong.
Saudi Arabia is waging a price war, and two major US Shale Oil giants have announced cuts in capital expenditures. Has the production of Shale Oil in the USA reached its peak?
The major USA shale oil companies Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy have both stated that they will reduce their capital budgets for 2025 and decrease the number of drilling rigs. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice warned: "Due to the reduction in drilling rigs, the USA onshore oil production is likely to have peaked and will begin to decline this quarter."
OPEC Just Created The Income Trade Of The Decade
