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It is estimated that the USA will add 135,000 non-farm jobs in April, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
The median increase in non-farm employment is projected to be 135,000 in April 2025. If the actual growth is 135,000, it will indicate a decrease compared to last month and will also be lower than the 12-month average of 156,800. In March 2025, non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the estimated median of 130,000. In the past 12 months, non-farm employment surpassed the estimated median in 5 months and fell below it in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), non-farm employment exceeded the estimated median 57% of the time.
Key employment data is about to be released. Is the USA's economic outlook hanging by a thread?
The USA Department of Labor will release the April non-farm employment report, and the market is highly focused on this data, attempting to determine whether the USA economy is temporarily affected by tariff policies or is heading towards a more serious long-term decline.
In April, the USA's ISM manufacturing PMI experienced the largest contraction in five months, with the output index reaching the lowest level since May 2020.
Due to a decrease in Orders and the impact of tariffs, the USA's ISM Manufacturing PMI Index for April is 48.7, with an expectation of 47.9 and a previous value of 49. In an uncertain economic environment, both demand and output are declining, and employment is continuously contracting. The rise in costs due to tariffs has accelerated price increases, leading to a backlog of new Orders, slower supply deliveries, and increased inventory.
Is a rate cut imminent? The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the market has sent a signal to the Federal Reserve.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated in an interview with Fox Business Channel that the US debt market is sending clear signals indicating that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates.
U.S. stocks fluctuate | Spot Gold falls more than 1.8% and the Gold Sector collectively declines.
Gold Futures fell more than 1.8%, currently reported at 3227.3 USD.
The inflation Indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve continued to cool in March, but the "Trump impact" has arrived.
Data released on Wednesday indicated that the core PCE price Index in the USA experienced a slight month-on-month decline in March, the first decline since 2020; however, with a series of tariffs coming into effect, the market generally expects inflation in the USA to rise in the coming months; this will also put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.