Shin Yamamoto's "Stock Research File": Is the announcement day of tariffs by sector in the Semiconductors field the starting signal for the bubble reignition?

In the previous discussion, it was mentioned that the current market closely resembles the early stages of the COVID bubble. If President Trump is seriously considering ensuring victory for the Republican Party in next year's midterm elections, the re-emergence of the bubble is quite possible. The Nikkei average and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) have already regained levels that were seen before the 'USA Liberation Day' (the day the mutual tariffs were announced), significantly surpassing the closing prices at the end of March. In that sense, it can be said that the shock from the mutual tariffs has been overcome, but the year-to-date high during trading hours.

Kabushiki Shimbun04:49 ET

Expectations for the progress of the weak yen and tariff negotiations are driving prices close to 37,000 yen.

The Nikkei average has risen for seven consecutive trading days, finishing at 36,830.69 yen, up 378.39 yen (with an estimated volume of 1.9 billion 70 million shares). The depreciation of the yen, driven by the retreat of speculation regarding additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with expectations of progress in tariff discussions with the USA, led to a bullish start. Autos stocks were bought, reaching as high as 36,976.51 yen in the middle of the morning session, approaching the significant level of 37,000 yen. However, ahead of the four-day holiday, profit-taking selling is likely to occur, and the USA is awaiting the announcement of the employment statistics for April.

Fisco Japan03:29 ET

The Nikkei average is about 230 yen higher, with positive contributions from Fast Retailing, Daikin, and Shin-Etsu Chemical leading the way.

At 12:47 PM on the 2nd, the Nikkei Stock Average is trending around 36,680 yen, up about 230 yen from the previous day. In the afternoon session, trading started near the morning's closing price. After that, it seems that active trading is limited due to the upcoming consecutive holidays. The foreign exchange market is at 145.20 yen to the dollar, and the yen is strengthening in the afternoon. In terms of the contributions of the stocks included in the Nikkei Stock Average, Fast Retailing <9983.T>, Daikin <6367.T>, and Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063.T> rank among the top positives.

Kabushiki Shimbun23:52 ET

Rating information (changes in investment determination) = Mitsukoshi Isetan, GENDAX ETC.

◎Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities (three tiers: Overweight > Equal Weight > Underweight) Mitsukoshi Isetan <3099.T> --- "Overweight" → "Equal Weight", 3,200 yen → 2,200 yen ◎Tokai Tokyo Securities (three tiers: Outperform > Neutral > Underperform) GENDTA <9166.T> --- New "Outperform", 1,410 yen Shinmetrics H <6086.T> --- "Outperform" → "Neutral"

Kabushiki Shimbun21:28 ET

<Rating Change Observation> Upgraded to new - GENDA / Shin-Etsu Chemical, downgraded to Shinmente H, etc.

◎ New and resumed GENGDA <9166.T> - Domestic semi-large company upgraded to the highest tier in three stages. ◎ Upgrade Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063.T> - Domestic mid-sized company upgraded to the highest tier in five stages. Advantest <6857.T> - Domestic mid-sized company upgraded to the highest tier in five stages. ◎ Downgrade Mitsukoshi Isetan <3099.T> - Bank-affiliated downgraded to the middle of three stages. Symantec H <6086.T> - Domestic semi-large company downgraded to the middle of three stages. Provided by Wealth Advisor.

Kabushiki Shimbun19:50 ET

Rating [Securities companies rating]

Upgraded - Bullish Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After --------------------------------------------------------- <6857> Advanta Mito "B+" "A" <4063> Shin-Etsu Chemical Mito "B+" "A" Downgraded - Bearish Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After --------------------------------------------------------- <6086>

Fisco Japan19:36 ET