The policy of lowering the reserve requirement and interest rates has finally been officially announced, releasing trillions in liquidity, while the bond market responds with "silence".
① From today's bond market yield performance, long-term bond yields are rising rapidly, with the yield on the 10-year government bond active bond 250004 increasing by 1.7 BP to 1.638%. ② If funds are retracted through OMO while lowering the reserve requirement, it will promote Crediting, but not leverage in the bond market.
Bescent warns that the USA is at a "warning line" for debt, but still insists it will not fall into default.
① The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bentsen warned again on Tuesday in response to questions from the House of Representatives that the U.S. Treasury is at the "red line," close to exhausting its ability to stay within the federal debt ceiling; ② However, Bentsen assured once again that the U.S. government would never default on its debt and promised that the Treasury would not use "tricks" to circumvent the debt ceiling.
The USA Treasury's 10-year bond auction was strong, with robust overseas investment demand.
Compared to the almost "zero liquidity" tension during the last 10-year U.S. Treasury auction, the market is clearly much calmer this time. After the auction results were released, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply. Michael Faulkender, Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, stated that today's 10-year U.S. Treasury auction was very successful.
Beijing Century claims that the USA is in a "warning stage" regarding the debt ceiling, and the US government will never default.
On Tuesday, the USA Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that the USA Treasury is on a "warning track", nearing the limit of its ability to remain within the federal debt ceiling, but he did not provide a specific timeline.
Deutsche Bank: The sell-off of USA Assets has been excessive.
Deutsche Bank pointed out that at the beginning of April, the USA market experienced significant volatility, but the panic regarding the dollar, USA Consumer data, and overall confidence in USA Assets may be exaggerated. From a relative valuation perspective, some cyclical USA Consumer stocks may begin to show investment attractiveness. Although policy volatility may persist, the narrative of "selling dollar Assets" may have reached its peak.
The New Taiwan dollar has surged, life insurance has become a major risk, and there is a large-scale mismatch of dollar Assets.
The life insurance industry in Taiwan, China, has long invested a large amount of Assets in US Bonds, and in order to maintain the yield, it only partially hedges its continuously expanding Forex risk exposure, effectively betting its solvency on the New Taiwan Dollar remaining weak against the US Dollar. As the New Taiwan Dollar surges, life insurance companies in Taiwan, China, are rushed to reduce or hedge their dollar exposure.