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Fed Confronts Lose-Lose Scenario Amid Haphazard Tariff Rollout -- WSJ
Dollar's Tumble Evokes '90s Asian Currency Crisis. How Stocks Could Suffer
Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while insisting he has no intention of firing Powell.
① The USA President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's slow pace of interest rate cuts on the show, but stated that he does not intend to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell; ② However, Trump has not given up on pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and defends his tariff policy.
In April, the USA ISM Services PMI exceeded expectations, the price index reached a two-year high, and improvements were seen in employment and new Orders.
The activity of service providers in the USA has recovered somewhat in April after a sharp decline in March. The Price Index is 65.1, the rate of employment contraction has slowed down, New Orders are at their highest since the beginning of the year, the Business Activity Index has fallen to its lowest since June of last year, the Import Indicators have seen the largest drop since June, and the Inventory Indicators have risen to their highest since October of last year.
The MMF in Asia has surged across the board; is the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" for real?
JPMorgan believes that the weakness of the dollar is not due to any coordinated agreement, but is driven by changes in fundamentals. Additionally, the market commonly believes that behind the strong currencies in Asia, there is another powerful driver - the massive dollar Assets accumulated from years of trade surpluses starting to flow back, creating strong Forex hedging pressure.
UBS Group interprets the "New Taiwan Dollar surge": What is the real reason? Is a hundred billion dollar sell-off still on the way?
UBS Group believes that the driving force is the currency hedging conducted by insurance companies, enterprises, and the stop loss from previous New Taiwan dollar financing arbitrage trades. The market equilibrium has been disrupted, and insurance companies and exporters might increase their hedging ratios during a New Taiwan dollar pullback. Simply bringing Forex hedging/deposits back to trend levels could lead to a sell-off of up to 100 billion dollars.
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