• Keiith : Given that the long - term technical trend for Venture Global is bearish but short - term signals are bullish, how do you balance these conflicting indicators when deciding on an investment strategy?

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• Handiyanan : I really appreciate how comprehensive this analysis is. 
  But I'm curious about how the author weights different factors when making an overall assessment. For example, are the legal disputes more of a concern than the competition in the long run?

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• Kevin Matte OP Keiith : The long-term trend is down, but short-term signals are positive… what does that mean?
  It depends on your goal: If you’re a long-term investor, better wait until the stock clearly shows a real recovery (for example, if it breaks above $11.78 with strong volume).
  If you’re a short-term trader, you can take advantage of the current bounce, but do it carefully with a stop-loss and clear profit target. In short: short term = possible opportunity / long term = caution until confirmed.

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• Kevin Matte OP Handiyanan : Are legal issues more serious than competition? Yes, right now, the lawsuits are the bigger concern—they can delay shipments, hurt reputation, and impact cash flow. Competition is more of a long-term risk, but Venture Global is already expanding and signing big contracts to deal with that.
  So for now, legal risks are more urgent, but competition is still important over the long run.

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• 73564225 : can you take a look at CHRO and give an opinion on up or down? please.

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• Keiith : How are you handling the legal overhang from those arbitration cases?

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• Tliet : Interesting charts, but the real story is Plaquemines running at 140% capacity. $12B spot revenue potential in 2025? That’s 4x 2024 EBITDA.

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• Kevin Matte OP Keiith : Thank you for your relevant comment.
  Indeed, the legal uncertainty surrounding the arbitration cases is a key risk factor that must be incorporated into any analysis of Venture Global.
  At this stage, I have treated this risk as a weighting factor in the valuation target, adjusting my pessimistic/neutral/optimistic scenarios accordingly:
  In the event of an unfavorable outcome, it could significantly increase costs and reduce the company’s self-financing capacity, impacting the applied valuation multiple.
  In the event of a favorable outcome or an amicable settlement, operational growth would largely offset this risk.
  My approach remains cautious, with active monitoring of legal developments to adjust future valuations as needed.
  I am also preparing a specific "Stress Test" scenario model related to the arbitration risks, to better frame this aspect.
  (I will be publishing this complementary analysis shortly.)

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• Kevin Matte OP Tliet : Excellent point, and thank you for highlighting it.
  Indeed, the fact that Plaquemines is already operating at 140% of its nominal capacity is an extremely bullish signal for Venture Global.
  Taking into account this overcapacity and the spot market dynamics projected for 2025, we arrive at a gross revenue potential of $12 billion USD — approximately four times the 2024 EBITDA, as you rightly pointed out.
  This suggests that the theoretical fair price based solely on current fundamentals (2024 sales) likely underestimates the company's future value if this scenario materializes.
  In my next update, I will incorporate this factor into a revised valuation model, using a forward-looking approach (forward P/S 2025 or EV/EBITDA 2025E).
  Thank you for your valuable contribution — it definitely strengthens the fundamental side of the analysis.

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• 74131686 : ...that empty spot beneath trumpfs bald spot

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