Full text of Powell's press conference Q&A: Wait and see, there will not be a preemptive interest rate cut.
Powell stated that the economy has remained resilient, the policy positioning is correct, and the Federal Reserve is now in a favorable position to observe, without the need to rush into action, as the cost of further observation is relatively low. Regarding the recent divergence in the USA's soft and hard data, Powell mentioned that looking back over the past few years, the connection between sentiment data and Consumer spending has always been weak, lacking a strong correlation. Powell also noted that he has never proactively requested to meet with any president and will not do so in the future.
Why the Fed Isn't Ready to Join Other Central Banks in Cutting Rates -- WSJ
Ukraine is brewing a major change in Exchange Rates: considering abandoning the US dollar as the reference currency.
① The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, stated on Wednesday that in the context of the Global trade divide and Ukraine's increasing ties with Europe, Ukraine is beginning to consider moving away from the dollar, possibly linking the country's currency, the hryvnia, more closely to the euro; ② This is the most direct comment made by Ukrainian officials regarding the significant changes in Exchange Rates.
CITIC SEC: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates no more than twice this year. In the short term, the market may still be trading around Trump's tariff policy.
CITIC SEC expects the market to continue trading around Trump's tariff policy in the short term, the Forex market still has a strong bearish sentiment towards the dollar, the outlook for the US stock market remains unclear, and high volatility is expected to persist in the short term.
Facing the tariffs and choosing to 'wait and see', the Federal Reserve's dilemma: lowering interest rates too early raises concerns about being forced to raise them back, while delaying requires larger rate cuts.
According to Statistics by Timiraos, Powell used the term "wait and see" 11 times at the press conference, clearly conveying the current policy stance of the Federal Reserve. Analysts believe that a rapid cut in interest rates now would increase the risk that the Federal Reserve would have to reverse its policy and raise rates in a few months; however, if it continues to remain inactive, it would be equivalent to a "passive tightening," potentially requiring more significant rate cuts to save the economy.
Trump's tariffs suppress the dollar, Goldman Sachs raises the inflation expectations for the USA in the next two years.
Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecasts for US inflation this year and next year, partly due to the weakening of the dollar following the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs.
Sinolink: As the recession in the USA becomes a 'consensus,' the explanatory utility from the perspective of tariffs is declining.
Recently, some economic data from the USA indicate that the entire industry is almost in a state of "activity surge" before the tariffs arrive. This state of affairs is relatively fragile in terms of its sustainability, and to some extent, it has masked the slowdown in growth brought about by cyclical weakening.
Gold Trade Alert: Powell's "hawkish" tone leaks, gold prices pressured at the 3400 level, is there still a chance for the bulls?
On Thursday (May 8) during the Asia session, spot Gold rebounded slightly, currently trading around 3375.58 USD/ounce. Gold prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday, falling below the 3400 level, with a session low of 3360.18 USD/ounce, closing at 3364.32 USD/ounce. The optimistic sentiment regarding international trade negotiations dampened the safe-haven demand for Gold. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, but Chairman Powell's remarks were more hawkish than the market anticipated, leading the USD to record its largest single-day gain in nearly two weeks, putting pressure on Gold prices. However, there is still Bid support for Gold prices.
The Fed's Next Move Depends on Tariffs. It Could Take a While. -- Barrons.com
Trump's "dream of rate cuts" shattered! The Federal Reserve remained unchanged in May, Powell: The independence of the Federal Reserve is "unshakeable."
The risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing.
The Federal Reserve is caught in a "double storm": inflation and unemployment rates are both surging; is there still hope for a rate cut in July?
The Federal Reserve announced in its latest decision that it will keep interest rates unchanged, but unusually cautioned that "the risks of rising inflation and unemployment are increasing." This statement marks the Federal Reserve facing its most complex policy choice in recent years: on one side, there is persistent inflationary pressure, and on the other, a potentially worsening job market, while the tariff policies of the Trump administration cast a shadow over the economic outlook. Will the anticipated interest rate cuts arrive as expected? How much longer can the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" strategy last? 1. Analysis of the policy statement: Hidden concerns amidst economic expansion The Federal Reserve continued to classify the economy as undergoing a "robust expansion" in its statement, but the details reveal more contradictory signals.
A visual interpretation of the Federal Reserve's May decision: Continuing to 'stay put', Trump's pressure ineffective!
① In May, the Federal Reserve announced to "stay the course", which is in line with market expectations, marking the third consecutive meeting where the Fed maintained interest rates. ② In response to Trump's repeated pressure on the Fed to cut rates, Powell stated: "This has no impact on our ability to fulfill our duties."
PIMCO Expects Fed Still Points To Rate Cuts From September -- Market Talk
Full text of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting statement on May 7 and comparison.
The full text of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting statement on May 6-7 is as follows: Despite fluctuations in net exports affecting the data, recent Indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily. The unemployment rate has remained stable at a low level in recent months, and the labor market remains robust. Inflation rates are still slightly high. The committee seeks to achieve full employment and a longer-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further. The committee is focused on both aspects of the dual policy mandate.
Confronting Trump? Powell emphasizes the independence of the Federal Reserve and refuses to commit to a future interest rate path.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a news conference on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its independence in monetary policy making.
Powell Says Trump Tariffs Could Delay Inflation Progress - and Rate Cuts - by a Year
Slapping Trump in the face! Powell reaffirms that there is no rush to cut interest rates, stating that the economy is still good and uncertainty is extremely high, refusing to act in advance due to tariffs.
Powell stated that high tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, and it is too early to determine which risk is more severe; current MMF policy is moderately restrictive, and the potential inflation outlook is favorable, with a clear decision to remain watchful; cannot act preemptively because it is not known how to respond until more data is seen; the tariff impact has not yet arrived, and the policy's effect on inflation could be temporary or more persistent; at least for the next year, the Federal Reserve's inflation and employment targets will not progress; negotiations could significantly change the trade situation, or they might not; US GDP may be revised upward, making it difficult to interpret GDP due to import surges; will not be influenced by Trump's calls, has not requested to meet with the president; the growth path of government debt is unsustainable.
Powell: The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; the economy is resilient, and Trump's pressure has no effect.
① Powell is cautious about lowering interest rates, reiterating the stance mentioned repeatedly in recent months that "we believe there is no need to rush into action"; ② Powell's assessment of the economy is relatively optimistic, believing the USA economy is resilient and in good condition, which is one reason for decision-makers to continue to wait and see; ③ In response to Trump's frequent pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, Powell stated: "This has no impact on our performance of duties."
Powell Flags Sharp Tariff Shock, Elevated Uncertainty: Fed Sticks To 'Wait-And-See' Mode
The Federal Reserve warns of stagflation and uncertainty, not in a hurry to cut interest rates, resulting in fluctuations in US stocks and bonds, the dollar rising, and Gold falling.
The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, warning of stagflation and uncertainty. The Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1% at one point, but the decline narrowed significantly thereafter. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated with not much volatility. During Powell's press conference, the USD generally showed an upward trend, with intraday gains expanding; Gold generally showed a downward trend, with intraday losses widening.