Shin Yamamoto's "Stock Research File": Is the announcement day of tariffs by sector in the Semiconductors field the starting signal for the bubble reignition?
In the previous discussion, it was mentioned that the current market closely resembles the early stages of the COVID bubble. If President Trump is seriously considering ensuring victory for the Republican Party in next year's midterm elections, the re-emergence of the bubble is quite possible. The Nikkei average and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) have already regained levels that were seen before the 'USA Liberation Day' (the day the mutual tariffs were announced), significantly surpassing the closing prices at the end of March. In that sense, it can be said that the shock from the mutual tariffs has been overcome, but the year-to-date high during trading hours.
Expectations for the progress of the weak yen and tariff negotiations are driving prices close to 37,000 yen.
The Nikkei average has risen for seven consecutive trading days, finishing at 36,830.69 yen, up 378.39 yen (with an estimated volume of 1.9 billion 70 million shares). The depreciation of the yen, driven by the retreat of speculation regarding additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with expectations of progress in tariff discussions with the USA, led to a bullish start. Autos stocks were bought, reaching as high as 36,976.51 yen in the middle of the morning session, approaching the significant level of 37,000 yen. However, ahead of the four-day holiday, profit-taking selling is likely to occur, and the USA is awaiting the announcement of the employment statistics for April.
The Nikkei average is about 230 yen higher, with positive contributions from Fast Retailing, Daikin, and Shin-Etsu Chemical leading the way.
At 12:47 PM on the 2nd, the Nikkei Stock Average is trending around 36,680 yen, up about 230 yen from the previous day. In the afternoon session, trading started near the morning's closing price. After that, it seems that active trading is limited due to the upcoming consecutive holidays. The foreign exchange market is at 145.20 yen to the dollar, and the yen is strengthening in the afternoon. In terms of the contributions of the stocks included in the Nikkei Stock Average, Fast Retailing <9983.T>, Daikin <6367.T>, and Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063.T> rank among the top positives.
Rating information (changes in investment determination) = Mitsukoshi Isetan, GENDAX ETC.
◎Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities (three tiers: Overweight > Equal Weight > Underweight) Mitsukoshi Isetan <3099.T> --- "Overweight" → "Equal Weight", 3,200 yen → 2,200 yen ◎Tokai Tokyo Securities (three tiers: Outperform > Neutral > Underperform) GENDTA <9166.T> --- New "Outperform", 1,410 yen Shinmetrics H <6086.T> --- "Outperform" → "Neutral"
<Rating Change Observation> Upgraded to new - GENDA / Shin-Etsu Chemical, downgraded to Shinmente H, etc.
◎ New and resumed GENGDA <9166.T> - Domestic semi-large company upgraded to the highest tier in three stages. ◎ Upgrade Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063.T> - Domestic mid-sized company upgraded to the highest tier in five stages. Advantest <6857.T> - Domestic mid-sized company upgraded to the highest tier in five stages. ◎ Downgrade Mitsukoshi Isetan <3099.T> - Bank-affiliated downgraded to the middle of three stages. Symantec H <6086.T> - Domestic semi-large company downgraded to the middle of three stages. Provided by Wealth Advisor.
Rating [Securities companies rating]
Upgraded - Bullish Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After --------------------------------------------------------- <6857> Advanta Mito "B+" "A" <4063> Shin-Etsu Chemical Mito "B+" "A" Downgraded - Bearish Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After --------------------------------------------------------- <6086>
The ADR trends for the day = In yen conversion, TDK, Advantest, Kyocera Corporation Sponsored ADR, etc. are high.
The American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) for the day, when converted to yen, were universally higher compared to the closing prices in Tokyo. In yen terms, TDK <6762.T>, Advantest <6857.T>, Kyocera Corporation Sponsored ADR <6971.T>, Nissan Motor <7201.T>, and Mizuho <8411.T> were higher. Kirin Holdings <2503.T>, Shin-Etsu Chemical <4063.T>, Kubota <6326.T>, Kawasaki Heavy Industries <7012.T>, and SoftBank Group <9984.T> were also higher. Provided by Wealth Advisor Co.
After the delayed interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the Nikkei average stock price temporarily recovered to 36,500 yen.
The Nikkei average continued to rise significantly for six consecutive trading days, closing up 406.92 yen at 36,452.30 yen (Volume estimated at 1.8 billion 60 million shares). Amid the sharp surge in the after-hours trading of U.S. Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc, buying started to lead in the Tokyo market, particularly in the Semiconductors sector. Additionally, the depreciation of the yen to the 144 yen level against the dollar following the announcement of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision was also viewed as favorable, increasing the number of export-related stocks that gained in value.
The Nikkei average is up about 260 points, with the positive contributors being Advantest, TDK, and Recruit Holdings at the top.
At around 12:50 PM on the 1st, the Nikkei average stock price is fluctuating around 36,300 yen, up about 260 yen from the previous day. At the much-anticipated Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, it was unanimously decided to maintain the current financial market adjustment policy. In the afternoon, trading began with an increased range compared to the morning's closing price, and the exchange rate is at 143.60 yen per dollar, currently trending toward a weaker yen. In terms of the contribution of stocks included in the Nikkei average, Advantest <6857.T>, TDK <6762.T>, are among the top positive contributors.
Market Overview Early Information = Main after-market market order status (2) LINE Yahoo, Rakuten, Mizuho, etc.
As of 12:20 PM on the 1st, the main pre-opening market orders are as follows: LINE <4689.T> Sell 290,000 shares, Buy 50,000 shares Japan Post <6178.T> Sell 20,000 shares, Buy 10,000 shares Advantest <6857.T> Sell 40,000 shares, Buy 100,000 shares Rakuten <4755.T> Sell 20,000 shares, Buy 50,000 shares Renesas <6723.T> Sell 30,000 shares, Buy 50,000 shares Mizuho <8411.T> Sell 30,000 shares, Buy 30,000 shares Provided by: Wealth Advisor Co.
The Nikkei average is up about 130 yen, with the top gainers among the adopted stocks being Sumitomo Pharma, JR Central, Advantest, ETC.
On May 1st, shortly after 11 AM, the Nikkei Average stock price fluctuated around 36,175 yen, up about 130 yen from the previous day. At 9:13 AM, it reached 36,341.62 yen, up 296.24 yen. After that, with few clues available and anticipating the announcement of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting results, a wait-and-see mood seems to have spread. Among the stocks included in the Nikkei Average, notable gainers include Sumitomo Pharma <4506.T>, JR Tokai <9022.T>, and Socionext <6.
April 30th ADR trends = Advantest, Keyence, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and others are high in yen conversion values.
On April 30, the ADRs (American Depositary Receipt) showed mixed results compared to the Tokyo closing prices on the same day when converted to yen. In terms of yen values, Advantest <6857.T>, Keyence <6861.T>, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011.T>, Mizuho <8411.T>, and SoftBank Group <9984.T> were higher. On the other hand, INPEX <1605.T>, Nidec Corporation Sponsored ADR <6594.T>, Sony Group Corp <6758.T>, Murata Manufacturing <6981.T>, and Nitori Holdings <9843.T> were softer.
The index has recovered to the 36,000 yen range for the first time in a month.
The Nikkei average has risen for five consecutive trading days. It ended with a gain of 205.39 yen at 36,045.38 yen (with an estimated Volume of 2.2 billion 80 million shares), recovering the 36,000 yen mark for the first time in about a month. Increased expectations for a rise due to the strong US stock market and progress in US tariff negotiations led the buying. The Nikkei average briefly returned above 36,000 yen right after trading began. However, as it surpassed the key level of 36,000 yen, opposing sentiments emerged, and gradually a wait-and-see mood spread, resulting in consolidation around 35,900 yen. Toward the end of the afternoon session, index buying is expected from pension funds at the end of the month.
Rating information (Target Price changes - Part 2) = Kewpie, Fujibo HD ETC.
◎ Mizuho Securities (3-stage: Buy > Hold > Underperform) Kewpie <2809.T> - "Buy" → "Buy", 4,300 yen → 4,100 yen ◎ Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities (3-stage: Overweight > Equal Weight > Underweight) Fujibo Holdings <3104.T> - "Overweight" → "Overweight", 6,200 yen → 6,400 yen Nitto Boseki <3110.T> - "Overweight" → "Overweight", 7,400 yen →
Market Overview Early Information = Main order situation for market opening before the first session (2) NYK Line, Tokyo Metro, Mizuho, ETC.
As of 8:50 AM on the 30th, the main pre-opening market order situation is as follows: Yusen <9101.T> Sell 40,000 shares, Buy 60,000 shares Tokyo Metro <9023.T> Sell 150,000 shares, Buy 30,000 shares Advantest <6857.T> Sell 190,000 shares, Buy 120,000 shares Rakuten <4755.T> Sell 310,000 shares, Buy 140,000 shares Renesas <6723.T> Sell 240,000 shares, Buy 170,000 shares Mizuho <8411.T> Sell 260,000 shares, Buy 280,000 shares Provided by Wealth Advisors
Jefferies Adjusts Advantest's Price Target to 9,500 Yen From 12,000 Yen, Keeps at Buy
After the buying phase, individual stock selection will be guided by the financial results.
The Nikkei average has risen for four consecutive trading days. It ended trading at 35,839.99 yen, up 134.25 yen (with an estimated Volume of 2 billion 10 million shares). Following the purchase of tech stocks in the US market last weekend and favorable movements from major companies' earnings reports, the Nikkei average started with a buying lead, shortly rising to 36,075.26 yen after the trading began, recovering to the 36,000 yen level for the first time in about four weeks since April 1. Additionally, due to the yen depreciating to around 143 yen per dollar, export-related stocks were repurchased.
The Nikkei average is up about 110 yen, with trading volumes led by Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Advantest.
On the 28th at around 2:02 PM, the Nikkei Average is fluctuating around 35,820 yen, up about 110 yen from the previous weekend. In the afternoon session, trading started with a slight Sell dominance. The dollar-yen exchange rate is at 143.30 yen per dollar, indicating a stronger yen recently, leading to a continuation of heavy upward movement. The top Volume stocks at 2:02 PM (Main Board) are: JDI <6740.T>, NTT <9432.T>, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011.T>, Toyota <7203.T>, and SoftBank <9434.T>.
Stocks that moved and those that were traded in the front market.
*Toyota Industries Corporation <6201> 16225 - reports suggest consideration for privatization of stocks. *Aichi Steel Corporation <5482> 8840 +1200 recognized for last period's double-digit profit increase and significant dividend increase plan this period. *Kinden Corporation <1944> 3838 +417 this period's guidance exceeds consensus. *Mitsui E&S Holdings <7003> 1857 +199 reports indicate the Trump administration's request for Japan for dual-use shipbuilding, regarded as a buying opportunity. *Anritsu Corporation <6754> 1401.5 +122 exceeds expectations.
Kinden, Yamazaki Pan ETC (additional) Rating
Downgrade - Bearish Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After--------------------------------------------------------------<6523> PHCHD Morgan Stanley "Equal Weight" "Under Weight" <8591> ORIX Morgan Stanley "Over Weight" "Equal Weight" Target Price Change Code Stock Name Securities Company Previous After------------------------------------