GDX250502P53000
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VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF Newsroom
Trump Has Made It (Almost) Impossible for Powell to Cut Interest Rates
The USA's trade deficit reached a record high in March! Companies are rushing to import wildly before the tariffs are implemented.
Due to the Trump administration's imminent implementation of a comprehensive tariff policy, companies rushed to import commodities in advance, leading to a historic record in the U.S. trade deficit in March.
DWS: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in May, and the market's focus will still be on inflation.
Overall, DWS believes that "the Federal Reserve will adopt a slightly hawkish tone, but in reality extend a hold-steady position."
Dollar Could Rise If Fed Pushes Back Against Rate Cut Bets -- Market Talk
NY Fed's Inflation Gauge Outpaces Headline PCE, Hints at Stubborn Price Pressures
Goldman Sachs: Under multiple challenges such as high inflation and trade wars, the Federal Reserve's signal of "patience" continues to strengthen.
Goldman Sachs report indicates that the Federal Reserve is inclined to maintain policy stability amidst multiple challenges of inflationary pressures, tariff effects, and a weak labor market until data provides a clearer direction.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the US dollar is overvalued by 16%, and could quickly adjust, or even overshoot, in the event of a "significant change" in macro fundamentals.
Goldman Sachs believes that the overvaluation of the dollar is mainly driven by Global funds chasing the USA's exceptional return prospects. As the USA's return advantage gradually diminishes, the overvaluation may be corrected gradually. The degree of the dollar's overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumption of the USA's current account "standard level." Currently, the USA's actual current account deficit is about 4%, and if it were to narrow to 2%, it could lead to a 22% depreciation of the dollar.
The market is too optimistic! Tariffs have a "three-stage" impact on the USA economy, and the second stage is about to begin.
Citigroup believes that with tariffs remaining at current levels for at least the next few months, the USA economy will experience three stages of impact: a "shopping spree" temporarily boosts economic data, uncertainty causes a slowdown in investment and hiring, and supply constraints trigger layoffs and price increases. This process may force the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as June, with a total reduction of 125 basis points within the year, far exceeding market expectations.
Federal Reserve spokesperson: Powell faces a double jeopardy but will grit teeth and stick to not lowering interest rates.
① The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Peking time on Thursday, with the market paying more attention to the policy wording in Powell's press conference; ② "The Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve will not "give up the fight against inflation too early"; ③ In the face of the headwind of Trump's tariffs, regardless of the Federal Reserve's choice, it will face a "double-bind dilemma" of recession or stagflation.
Dollar Trades Steady as Investors Weigh U.S. Tariffs, Await Fed Meeting -- Market Talk
Federal Reserve Still to Assess Tariff Impacts -- Market Talk
Allianz Investment: It is expected that the US dollar will face continued resistance in 2025 and prefers to reduce US dollar exposure in the investment portfolio.
Allianz Investment believes that the current macroeconomic and policy environment is favorable for the steepening of the USA yield curve. Furthermore, since the dollar is expected to face sustained resistance in 2025, there is a tendency to reduce dollar exposure in the investment portfolio.
Fed's Powell Expected to Address Recent Treasury Market Turmoil -- Market Talk
Fed to Emphasize Wait-and-See Stance -- Market Talk
Fed May Adopt More Hawkish Tone -- Market Talk
Deutsche Bank: The sell-off of USA Assets has been excessive.
Deutsche Bank pointed out that at the beginning of April, the USA market experienced significant volatility, but the panic regarding the dollar, USA Consumer data, and overall confidence in USA Assets may be exaggerated. From a relative valuation perspective, some cyclical USA Consumer stocks may begin to show investment attractiveness. Although policy volatility may persist, the narrative of "selling dollar Assets" may have reached its peak.
New Federal Reserve News Agency: Concerned about uncontrolled inflation, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts.
Nick Timiraos stated that, faced with the dilemma of recession and inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve is more likely to "maintain inflation" and may not lower interest rates until there are clear signs of a slowdown in Consumer spending and an increase in unemployment.
The significance of the decline in Global shipping data: The Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later, and global growth is expected to worsen in the next year or two.
Morgan Stanley stated that historically, tariff policies usually push up prices after a few months and slow down economic growth after several quarters. The decline in shipping data confirms that this disruption is happening, and its effects have not fully manifested yet, which supports Morgan Stanley's view that the Federal Reserve should remain patient, contrary to the market's expectations for a rate cut in June.
Fed Expected to Stand Pat This Week -- Market Talk
Stocks Drift, Dollar Steadies as Focus Shifts to Asian Currencies