Trump's "interest rate cut dream" may be shattered? JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma and reluctant to take any rash action!

① JPMorgan pointed out that despite President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve may not lower rates at this week's policy meeting, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low; ② Federal Reserve officials face dilemmas in monetary policy, mainly due to rising inflation expectations and the economy's recession not yet being absorbed by the market.

cls.cn24minutes ago

Before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, traders' expectations for a rate cut have cooled: betting on only three times this year.

Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will need to wait longer to continue lowering interest rates.

Zhitong Finance19:06 ET

Powell Unlikely to Offer Much Clarity -- Market Talk

WSJ13:47 ET

The trade deficit in the USA has expanded to a record level.

Due to companies rushing to increase imports before the Trump administration implemented widespread tariff policies, the USA trade deficit expanded to a record level in March.

May 6 10:38 ET

US Trade Deficit Surges To Record High In March

Business TodayMay 6 10:27 ET

Will Powell Defy Trump Again? Here's What The Fed Chair Might Say On Wednesday

BenzingaMay 6 10:18 ET

Trump Has Made It (Almost) Impossible for Powell to Cut Interest Rates

MarketWatchMay 6 10:16 ET

The USA's trade deficit reached a record high in March! Companies are rushing to import wildly before the tariffs are implemented.

Due to the Trump administration's imminent implementation of a comprehensive tariff policy, companies rushed to import commodities in advance, leading to a historic record in the U.S. trade deficit in March.

Zhitong FinanceMay 6 09:27 ET

Trade Deficit Hit a Record in March as Companies Rushed to Import Goods Ahead of Tariffs

MarketWatchMay 6 09:24 ET

US Trade Deficit Soars To Record $140B As Imports Rocket Ahead Of Trump's Tariffs

BenzingaMay 6 08:59 ET

DWS: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in May, and the market's focus will still be on inflation.

Overall, DWS believes that "the Federal Reserve will adopt a slightly hawkish tone, but in reality extend a hold-steady position."

Zhitong FinanceMay 6 06:58 ET

Dollar Could Rise If Fed Pushes Back Against Rate Cut Bets -- Market Talk

WSJMay 6 06:56 ET

NY Fed's Inflation Gauge Outpaces Headline PCE, Hints at Stubborn Price Pressures

MarketWatchMay 6 05:50 ET

Goldman Sachs: Under multiple challenges such as high inflation and trade wars, the Federal Reserve's signal of "patience" continues to strengthen.

Goldman Sachs report indicates that the Federal Reserve is inclined to maintain policy stability amidst multiple challenges of inflationary pressures, tariff effects, and a weak labor market until data provides a clearer direction.

Zhitong FinanceMay 6 04:35 ET

Goldman Sachs estimates that the US dollar is overvalued by 16%, and could quickly adjust, or even overshoot, in the event of a "significant change" in macro fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs believes that the overvaluation of the dollar is mainly driven by Global funds chasing the USA's exceptional return prospects. As the USA's return advantage gradually diminishes, the overvaluation may be corrected gradually. The degree of the dollar's overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumption of the USA's current account "standard level." Currently, the USA's actual current account deficit is about 4%, and if it were to narrow to 2%, it could lead to a 22% depreciation of the dollar.

wallstreetcnMay 6 04:32 ET

The market is too optimistic! Tariffs have a "three-stage" impact on the USA economy, and the second stage is about to begin.

Citigroup believes that with tariffs remaining at current levels for at least the next few months, the USA economy will experience three stages of impact: a "shopping spree" temporarily boosts economic data, uncertainty causes a slowdown in investment and hiring, and supply constraints trigger layoffs and price increases. This process may force the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as June, with a total reduction of 125 basis points within the year, far exceeding market expectations.

wallstreetcnMay 6 04:07 ET

Federal Reserve spokesperson: Powell faces a double jeopardy but will grit teeth and stick to not lowering interest rates.

① The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Peking time on Thursday, with the market paying more attention to the policy wording in Powell's press conference; ② "The Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve will not "give up the fight against inflation too early"; ③ In the face of the headwind of Trump's tariffs, regardless of the Federal Reserve's choice, it will face a "double-bind dilemma" of recession or stagflation.

cls.cnMay 6 03:52 ET

Dollar Trades Steady as Investors Weigh U.S. Tariffs, Await Fed Meeting -- Market Talk

WSJMay 6 02:36 ET

Federal Reserve Still to Assess Tariff Impacts -- Market Talk

WSJMay 6 01:52 ET

Allianz Investment: It is expected that the US dollar will face continued resistance in 2025 and prefers to reduce US dollar exposure in the investment portfolio.

Allianz Investment believes that the current macroeconomic and policy environment is favorable for the steepening of the USA yield curve. Furthermore, since the dollar is expected to face sustained resistance in 2025, there is a tendency to reduce dollar exposure in the investment portfolio.

Zhitong FinanceMay 6 01:43 ET