Confronting Trump? Powell emphasizes the independence of the Federal Reserve and refuses to commit to a future interest rate path.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a news conference on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its independence in monetary policy making.
Powell: The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; the economy is resilient, and Trump's pressure has no effect.
① Powell is cautious about lowering interest rates, reiterating the stance mentioned repeatedly in recent months that "we believe there is no need to rush into action"; ② Powell's assessment of the economy is relatively optimistic, believing the USA economy is resilient and in good condition, which is one reason for decision-makers to continue to wait and see; ③ In response to Trump's frequent pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, Powell stated: "This has no impact on our performance of duties."
The Federal Reserve warns of stagflation and uncertainty, not in a hurry to cut interest rates, resulting in fluctuations in US stocks and bonds, the dollar rising, and Gold falling.
The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, warning of stagflation and uncertainty. The Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1% at one point, but the decline narrowed significantly thereafter. U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated with not much volatility. During Powell's press conference, the USD generally showed an upward trend, with intraday gains expanding; Gold generally showed a downward trend, with intraday losses widening.
Fed Press Conference Might Not Add Much New -- Market Talk
In April, the foreign exchange reserves increased, Gold reserves have been increased for six consecutive months. How to decide on Gold investment with a 5% fluctuation?
① As of the end of April, China's Forex reserves were approximately 3281.7 billion USD, an increase of 41 billion USD from the end of March. In April, the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by Trump caused the dollar to drop significantly by about 4.4%, resulting in an increase in the price of non-dollar assets in our foreign reserves. ② The central bank continued to increase its Gold shareholding in April, and as of the end of April, Gold reserves amounted to 73.77 million ounces.
U.S. stock market outlook | All three Equity Index futures are up, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is imminent.
On May 7th (Wednesday), in Pre-Market Trading, the three major U.S. equity index futures all rose.
What caused the rapid reversal of the latest sell-off in the USA? Deutsche Bank: The main reasons are policy easing and the economy not entering recession.
Deutsche Bank stated that this round of market reversal is mainly attributed to three points: macroeconomic data shows that the USA economy has not fallen into recession; the decline in oil prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, providing room for potential interest rate cuts. Finally, the policies of the USA government have softened, and the tendency for trade protectionism has weakened.
U.S. stock valuations have reached warning levels again! The market is treading carefully before the Federal Reserve's decision.
The recent rebound in the stock market has caused valuation levels to rise again, and with the Federal Reserve about to announce its MMF policy decision, the market cannot afford any mistakes.
Dollar Won't Necessarily Rise If Fed Is Cautious Over Rate Cuts -- Market Talk
Under pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve may still choose to "wait and see" tonight, but how much longer can Powell remain strong?
Currently, the "hard data" of the USA economy remains strong, and with the USA government's more moderate attitude towards tariffs, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tonight. The focus will continue to be on comments regarding the impact of tariffs and guidance on future rate cuts. Powell may reaffirm his wait-and-see stance, observing how tariff policies permeate actual economic data before deciding on the next steps.
The pace of monetary easing has suddenly slowed! Global central banks are displaying strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the market's focus is on the Federal Reserve.
As trade tensions escalate, leading to increased uncertainty in economic growth and inflation prospects, the trend of interest rate cuts among major Global central banks significantly cooled in April.
Risk aversion has eased, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen has slightly rebounded, waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be finalized.
The Japanese Yen weakened during Wednesday's Asia session, ending a three-day appreciation against the USD. With major Asian nations and the USA set to hold high-level trade discussions in Switzerland, the Global market's risk sentiment improved, reducing investors' demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Yen, leading to a steady rise in the USD/JPY Exchange Rates, trading around 143.00. On the USD side, there was a slight rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, influenced by some investors repositioning. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, thus the focus is on the wording of the statement and Chairman Powell's speech. Any hints regarding future rate cut paths could have a significant impact on the USD's movement.
The surge of the New Taiwan Dollar is just a rehearsal, and USD Assets are facing a "2.5 trillion selling pressure"?
The renowned economist Stephen Jen warned that exporters and investors in Asia may have accumulated an "extremely large" reserve of dollars over the years. As the trade war led by the USA intensifies, some Asian investors may repatriate substantial amounts of capital, which could trigger a large-scale Outflow of dollars.
Countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Goldman Sachs expects there will be three more rate cuts this year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times in the coming months, specifically in July, September, and October, for a total reduction of 75 basis points.
A capital flight of 2.5 trillion US dollars: could Asia's reversal of capital trigger a dollar collapse?
① Stephen Jen, the founder of the famous 'Dollar Smile Theory,' stated on Wednesday that as Asian countries gradually reduce their dollar reserves, the dollar may face a 'avalanche' sell-off of up to 2.5 trillion dollars; ② Macro strategist Simon White also mentioned last week that after the trade war, a capital war is a logical next step, which will have adverse effects on USA Treasuries, risk assets, and the dollar.
Europe Natural Resources Fund: The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June has decreased, still bullish on Gold.
The market believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has decreased from 73.7% four weeks ago to 30.2% last Friday.
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