New Bond King: How can the US stock market not fall? Gold prices will reach 4000 dollars.
Jeffrey Gundlach stated that the rising unemployment rate and the inverted yield curve both indicate that the USA economy is heading into a recession, predicting that the S&P 500 Index may fall to around 4600 points. Investors are in a mid-term risk-averse market, and due to concerns over geopolitical turmoil, tariffs, and existing massive debt, Gold could rise to 4000 dollars.
In April, the foreign exchange reserves increased, Gold reserves have been increased for six consecutive months. How to decide on Gold investment with a 5% fluctuation?
① As of the end of April, China's Forex reserves were approximately 3281.7 billion USD, an increase of 41 billion USD from the end of March. In April, the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by Trump caused the dollar to drop significantly by about 4.4%, resulting in an increase in the price of non-dollar assets in our foreign reserves. ② The central bank continued to increase its Gold shareholding in April, and as of the end of April, Gold reserves amounted to 73.77 million ounces.
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World Gold Council quarterly report: Bullion, ETF purchase spree, Gold demand sees the strongest start in nine years.
① The World Gold Council report states that in the first quarter of 2025, global gold demand is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year, reaching 1,206 tons, setting the strongest demand record for a first quarter since 2016; ② The report indicates that retail investors continue to Buy gold bars and coins, the investment enthusiasm for Gold ETF has also reignited, and central banks across various countries continue to purchase gold to diversify their Forex reserves.
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Indonesia has raised mining taxes, with the nickel industry experiencing the largest increase. Industry giants warn that this may lead to production cuts or shutdowns!
The Indonesian government raised the royalty tax rates for nickel, Coal, Copper, Gold, and other minerals over the weekend. The biggest increase was in the nickel sector, which will rise from 10% to 14%-19%. Hendra Sinadia, Executive Director of the Indonesian Mining Association, warned that the operational costs for mining companies will increase and profits will be affected. Some companies may have to reduce production or even close mines.
Gold has come to a sudden stop, long positions have drastically decreased, and analysts warn that the trend has diverged from the fundamentals.
Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale stated that the surge in Gold Call Options after Trump's tariffs, leading to an inverted skew indicator, coupled with a sharp reduction in hedge fund long positions and the recent pullback in Gold prices, are all reasons to adopt a cautious outlook on Gold prices in the short term. The movement of Gold has already "decoupled" from the "fundamental drivers" such as the US dollar and real interest rates.
Betting on Gold for 15 years, Paulson achieved great success; he did not buy gold bars, but instead bought gold mines.
As early as when gold prices were around $900 per ounce, Paulson heavily bought gold mining stocks, including Perpetua Resources, Agnico Eagle Mines, and International Tower Hill Mines, among which several saw an increase of over 30% last year. Paulson believes that as gold prices rise, the profits of mining companies will multiply, and mining costs are relatively fixed, so even if gold prices adjust, there will still be room for profits.
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