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Hoopski : If China collapses, where would Tesla get their precious minerals to make their cars from ??
Yan Zhang8 Hoopski : China is everywhere, just as a factory.
SKYWalkers OP Hoopski : Japan, since 2010/2013, I have to check back on my research, they already started rare earth stockpiling.
P.S. 2010, there was a Japan ministry document, I can't find it now.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/10/japan-rare-earth-minerals/
MOHD NOR B ABDULLAH : It is very difficult to predict, it is impossible for it to happen
SKYWalkers OP MOHD NOR B ABDULLAH : it's not difficult to predict, economic collapse is inevitable, it's only a matter of time, when specifically, nobody can say for sure, but there are scholars who estimate 5 to 8 years, at the current rate of demise, so when the situation is desperate, you can see unusual activities from CCP.
"There is no precise date or universally agreed timeline for when China might reach a so-called "point of no return," as this depends on how you define that point—whether as economic stagnation, debt crisis, political instability, or geopolitical isolation. However, we can assess some key risk factors that could push China toward long-term structural decline if left unresolved:
1. Demographic Cliff (Peak Labor Force)
Fertility rate: ~1.0–1.2 (far below replacement)
Working-age population: Shrinking rapidly
Projection: By 2030–2035, China may face severe labor shortages, higher pension burdens, and slowing productivity.
2. Property and Debt Crisis
The real estate sector contributes ~25–30% of GDP.
Developers like Evergrande and Country Garden have defaulted.
Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are heavily indebted.
Point of concern: If defaults continue without reform, a financial or local government funding crisis could erupt by 2026–2028.
3. Innovation and Technology Decoupling
U.S.-led export controls (on semiconductors, AI chips, etc.) are beginning to bite.
Domestic firms are under pressure to achieve self-sufficiency in key sectors.
If decoupling accelerates without successful innovation, tech stagnation could set in by 2030.
4. Political Rigidity under Xi Jinping
Centralization of power and crackdown on private sector (e.g., Jack Ma, Ant Group)
Less room for policy experimentation
If political rigidity suppresses economic reform, China's growth model could stall permanently by the late 2020s.
Conclusion: Likely Timeline for "Point of No Return"
If major reforms are not enacted:
2026–2030: High risk of entering a “middle-income trap” scenario with prolonged low growth
2030–2035: Risk of economic stagnation becoming irreversible due to demographics, debt, and weak productivity."