Schwab Strategic Tr Short-Term Us Treasury Etf Newsroom

A major reversal in expectations for the bond market! Options Trading traders are increasing bets on the possibility that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all this year.

Options traders are aggressively establishing hedge positions to guard against the risk that the Federal Reserve may not ease MMF this year, with one increasingly growing position predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025.

wallstreetcn01:57 ET

Trump's "major concern": the stock market has returned, but the Bonds have not.

The S&P 500 Index has returned to the level before the tariff shock in April, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is still above the average level of 4.156% before the tariff announcement in April. Uncertainties such as tariff policy, fiscal outlook, and the White House's criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have intensified pressure in the bond market.

wallstreetcn23:27 ET

The USA Congressional Budget Office is "worried": the turmoil in tariffs will weaken the attractiveness of American Assets.

① The Director of the USA Congressional Budget Office (CBO), PHILLIP MM US$D Swagel, warned that the turmoil on Wall Street triggered by the Trump trade war could become a "critical point" that alters foreign investors' willingness to Hold USA Assets; ② He stated, "We are working to assess whether Global investors will develop lasting hesitation when examining the USA in the future."

cls.cn21:56 ET

Evercore ISI: The bear market in the U.S. stock market has ended, and a "marathon-style" bull market is expected under the shadow of tariffs.

The investment bank Evercore ISI pointed out that the latest market rebound marks the end of the bear market in 2025, but unlike in the past, this bull market will not accompany sharp rises, but will instead show a slow and volatile advance.

Zhitong Finance21:10 ET

Tariff "stirring" intensifies the differentiation of U.S. bond yields, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates!

Short-term Treasury yield has decreased due to the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, however, the long-term Treasury yield, which is a key benchmark for economic financing costs, has instead risen. This suggests that even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, long-term borrowing costs may remain high, weakening the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy and increasing the difficulty of achieving a soft landing.

wallstreetcn19:38 ET

Upcoming important schedule next week: USA CPI, retail data, Powell's speech, China's social financing, Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com Earnings Reports.

In addition, the fourth round of indirect talks between Iran and the USA will take place on the 11th. Putin proposed to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on May 15. China's financial data will be released irregularly in April. The Eurozone will announce its first-quarter GDP, and the American consumer giant Walmart will release its Q1 Earnings Reports. President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

wallstreetcnMay 11 02:38 ET

Treasury Yields Rise Amid Trade Talk Developments -- Market Talk

WSJMay 9 15:49 ET

Federal Reserve's Barr warns: tariffs raise inflation and slow down the economy, the Federal Reserve may find itself in a dilemma.

1. Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr warned that the trade policies of the Trump administration could raise inflation, slow economic growth, and increase unemployment, posing challenges for policymakers; 2. Barr believes that tariffs may disrupt global supply chains, creating sustained upward pressure on inflation and potentially exacerbating supply chain chaos.

cls.cnMay 9 08:19 ET

The "dollar hegemony" shows cracks in Asia: "de-dollarization" is accelerating and the renminbi is being embraced!

① With last month's unpredictable tariff policies by Trump triggering a wave of asset sell-offs in the USA, a fresh wave of "de-dollarization" is taking root in Asia... ② Multiple signs indicate that the demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar is rising among banks and brokers in the Asia region, as trade tensions have added urgency to the shift towards de-dollarization that has been happening for many years.

cls.cnMay 9 01:25 ET

Following the "new king of bonds," Goldman Sachs also predicts that inflation in the USA will reach 4% this year.

Goldman Sachs predicts that by Christmas, the inflation rate in the USA may reach 4%, while Commodity inflation could surge to 6%-8%. Shortly after the Federal Reserve announced to hold steady on May 7th, and after the press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital also stated, "Given the current situation, the overall CPI increase by the end of this year could reach the '4' threshold."

wallstreetcnMay 8 16:47 ET

Yields Jump as Traders Move Into Equities After Trump Says 'Go Out and Buy Stock Now'

Seeking AlphaMay 8 15:19 ET

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8

MT NewswiresMay 8 13:29 ET

SA Analysts Share Opinions on the Latest FOMC Rate Decision

Seeking AlphaMay 8 09:37 ET

Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve again for not lowering interest rates, but this time did not call for firing Powell.

① The Federal Reserve announces that it will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the third consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged; ② Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media, stating that he is "too late" and "clueless," but added that he "still really likes him."

cls.cnMay 8 09:20 ET

Jobless Claims Fall in Latest Week, With No Sign of Recession or Layoffs

MarketWatchMay 8 09:14 ET

Q1 US Nonfarm Productivity Falls as Expected, Unit Labor Costs Jump

MT NewswiresMay 8 08:41 ET

U.S. Productivity, Secret Sauce of Economy, Falls for First Time in Almost Three Years

MarketWatchMay 8 08:41 ET

Powell's stance of "not rushing to cut interest rates" has triggered a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as the market reassesses the Federal Reserve's policy path.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there would be no hasty reduction of borrowing costs, traders reduced their bets on Fed interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields on Thursday.

Zhitong FinanceMay 8 07:10 ET

Premature Fed Rate Cut Could Push 10-Year Treasury Yields Higher -- Market Talk

WSJMay 8 05:27 ET

Daxin Bank: Maintains a neutral rating on US stocks and expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as July or September.

The Federal Reserve remains inactive once again.

Zhitong FinanceMay 8 03:55 ET