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Federal Reserve Watch for May 12: Tariffs Effects Could Be 'Significant,' Kugler Says
US Treasury April Budget Slightly Larger Than Expected, Wider Than Year Ago
A major reversal in expectations for the bond market! Options Trading traders are increasing bets on the possibility that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all this year.
Options traders are aggressively establishing hedge positions to guard against the risk that the Federal Reserve may not ease MMF this year, with one increasingly growing position predicting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025.
Trump's "major concern": the stock market has returned, but the Bonds have not.
The S&P 500 Index has returned to the level before the tariff shock in April, but the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is still above the average level of 4.156% before the tariff announcement in April. Uncertainties such as tariff policy, fiscal outlook, and the White House's criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have intensified pressure in the bond market.
The USA Congressional Budget Office is "worried": the turmoil in tariffs will weaken the attractiveness of American Assets.
① The Director of the USA Congressional Budget Office (CBO), PHILLIP MM US$D Swagel, warned that the turmoil on Wall Street triggered by the Trump trade war could become a "critical point" that alters foreign investors' willingness to Hold USA Assets; ② He stated, "We are working to assess whether Global investors will develop lasting hesitation when examining the USA in the future."
Evercore ISI: The bear market in the U.S. stock market has ended, and a "marathon-style" bull market is expected under the shadow of tariffs.
The investment bank Evercore ISI pointed out that the latest market rebound marks the end of the bear market in 2025, but unlike in the past, this bull market will not accompany sharp rises, but will instead show a slow and volatile advance.
Moomoo Buddy : Dear valued customer, regarding this question, we are still checking with our relevant department, we will follow up to you tomorrow. Have a good day！
Moomoo Buddy : Dear valued customer, as advise by custodian that the 1042-S Income Code listed on DTC for SCHO (808524862) is 06 (Dividends paid by US corporations - general). This indicates that the allocation is subject to withholding. Have a nice day!