Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF Stock Discussion

• bdW : Lose? Put, what else is worth sending.

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• 无名_5214 : Atleast u secured the profit.

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• Sia KC OP 无名_5214 : Thanks, bro.

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• Penguin : averagely you made 10k per year

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• 104436685 Penguin :

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• Sia KC OP Penguin : I wish... Hahaha

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• 72993459 : of course

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• 10baggerbamm : Nvidia is screwed
  Jensen was forced to spend the $500 billion dollars to build out in the United States by President Trump. yesterday president Trump had a meeting called invest in America he had the top CEOs from around the world that were investing in the United States anywhere from about 150 million to over $500 billion. president Trump had several of the CEO speak to the group Jensen was one and I encourage you to listen to Jensen's comments because he pretty much alluded the fact that he didn't have a choice that he had to invest in the United States and build out or result of tariffs it will be virtually impossible for him to do business inside of the United States. you can hear president Trump directly say in one breath the pharmaceutical companies must build the United States chips too because we're giving them a window we're giving them time it's not a lot of time but it's time for them to start building and then beyond that if they don't the tariffs are going to be very difficult and then if they try to do something after the tariffs it will be very hard and then they won't be able to. so pharmaceutical companies are going to be forced to build it everything in the United States and same with chip companies.
  getting back to Nvidia they're just screwed they lost 14% of their top line revenue because China is history. they can sell their gaming chips to China they just can't sell any gpus so nothing AI related.
  since Nvidia is pre-sold on all of their Blackwell chips for this entire year they can't just manufacture a 14% increase some place to offset the loss and top line revenue. additionally the gpus that were the neutered down version selling to China we're very high profit margin which means nvidia's margins are going to come under pressure this quarter and next quarter much worse than anticipated and they were already heading lower. last quarter they disappointed they were right around 72% down from 75 and he says well that's cuz they had difficulties with Blackwell that's not the real reason they had to make concessions to the hyperscalers because of the six-month delay so they lowered the price in order to get the revenues booked in so they didn't miss earnings for the quarter. 
  at any rate if you look at what president Trump is doing with the Secretary of Treasury who is heading up the negotiations for tariffs they've explained it three buckets a green a yellow and a red. presently there's 18 Nations that are considered tier 1 Nations that Nvidia can sell to and then you have tier 2 which are limited in terms of the volume and then you have tier 3 which is your China your North Korea and they're now totally banned.
  under the new approach every tariff is going to be negotiated individually and what was alluded to yesterday which confirms what I've been speculating about for months is if these nations that are going to be negotiating with the tariff team are difficult and don't get along or don't want to comply with the terms and conditions that are offered by the United States and want to play hardball then president Trump is going to use nvidia's gpus as a carrot and what he's going to do is he's going to strip away the ability for those Nations to buy from Nvidia and they will no longer be permitted to own the amount of Blackwell in the green bucket that they want as an example and they will go to the yellow bucket which is going to be a significant reduction in what they can order.
  this is different than present right now there's groups tier 1 tier 2 tier 3 and what they want to do with these negotiations is not have it based off of biden's old design but rather Trump's new negotiated tarrif agreements. so an existing nation that can buy as much Blackwell as they want May wind up in the yellow bucket which means they're not going to get what they want it's going to be a significant reduced amount what this is going to do is destroy nvidia's revenue model.
  so we know for a fact nvidia's lost top line 14% revenues from China it cannot just be magically replaced that means they will miss earnings this quarter they will guide lower they don't have a choice because they can't just magically replace 14% revenue, their margins are going to be lower because what they were selling to China was a high margin item compared to  Blackwell. additionally because of the new approach that Trump's going to use friendly nations of the United States that can buy as much Blackwell some of them are going to get cut they're going to get reduced and all this does is hurt and videos top line revenue.
  so Nvidia is screwed plain and simple I think it's a fool that buys Nvidia stock yes it can go up we're seeing it go up based off of meta and Microsoft yesterday but Nvidia is very range bound so why fight the tide by buying Nvidia when there's so many other companies out there that  we're not going to be used as a pawn or a carrot in this tariff negotiating game where Nvidia only loses they never gain

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