Tonyco : rates stagnant.
recession will hit full on mid summer, once the full effects of this garbage are apparent to the short-sighted.
inflation increase dramatically, layoffs, loan defaults will cause death spiral for consumers, while interest rates will remain unchanged, ineffective Republican government will lead to shutdown and possibly default and credit downgrade
Beginnings of depression by year end.
Next year, bank failures will accelerate as dollar loses value, deregulation lead to risky loans increasing defaults, and mortgages and other big loans default
meanwhile, businesses continue to go insolvent, inflation stays high with unemployment, prolonging the misery.
end of next year US senate and congress will swap majorities (assuming orange mussolini doesn't attempt martial law takeover before then), beginning of 2027 may see some hope of recovery. We'll see.

yeebibi : too naive. of cuz china is facing huge pressure, but US is facing a lot more pressure. China can digest internally although still have negative impact, US can dun rely on overseas products?

SKYWalkers OP yeebibi : you can say I am wrong in my analysis, but it is naive for you to say I am naive, because from what you have just written, I can tell you, I know more than you about what is happening, the geopolitical undercurrents, the big picture of how the world is moving, so you shouldn't say I am naive, because you would be even more naive than me, that would be just the facts.
so it remains to be seen what happens because this is a Cultural/Ideology War within the Framework of Cold War 2.0, which side is gonna break first, is it the Constitutional Republic Democracy that will have its people express their anger by voting out Republicans in the coming midterms, or the Communist Dictatorship that will have its farmers pickup axes and shovels and revolt against the governance, it's a chicken game, that remains to be seen.