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Schroder Investment: Short-term severe sell-off of U.S. bonds, medium and long-term layout opportunities emerge.
Wu Meiyan, the Director of Fixed Income Investments at Schroders, stated that the sharp sell-off in the short-term US Treasury market, while reflecting market sentiment, often contains opportunities for long-term investors.
The brief "springtime" for the dollar cannot withstand the long "bearish path"! Hedge funds warn that tariff policies will trigger a wave of dollar selling.
The founder of Exante Data believes that the recent rebound of the dollar is just a fleeting moment, and the long-lasting "dollar bear market" has only just begun, mainly due to a series of chaotic tariff policies aimed at Global trade introduced by the Trump administration to reshape the USA economy and trade.
What is the market saying? While the Nasdaq is soaring, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching their highs, and the dollar is falling.
The analysis suggests that the rebound in the US stock market may only be a superficial celebration. The abnormal rise in US bond yields and the divergence from the dollar's trend point to structural fiscal issues in the USA, or imply a deeper risk of dollar collapse. With the USA government expected to issue over 2 trillion dollars in national debt, the lack of buyers may force the Federal Reserve to resume expanding its balance sheet.
CaptainBoi : I think it can restest the 600 range at thos point. New trade deals announced tomorrow apparently.
biilie OP CaptainBoi : Hopefully we won't have a tragedy like '08, when the stock market went into a nearly year-long bear market during the last Trump administration.
CaptainBoi biilie OP : Well we had two seperate bear markets during his term. The first announcement of the trade war in 2018, then we had covid in 2022 and he lack of government response. Mostly stimulus checks but yeah. Calm before the storm maybe? A fail auction is the next thing to look out for, but the fed might cut rates or step in and kick the can to next year or in 2027. The bond markets are telling congress to force budget cuts because new issurance of bonds will double our debt in the next 10-15 years. So wait until July maybe