Federal Reserve's Barr warns: tariffs raise inflation and slow down the economy, the Federal Reserve may find itself in a dilemma.
1. Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr warned that the trade policies of the Trump administration could raise inflation, slow economic growth, and increase unemployment, posing challenges for policymakers; 2. Barr believes that tariffs may disrupt global supply chains, creating sustained upward pressure on inflation and potentially exacerbating supply chain chaos.
The "dollar hegemony" shows cracks in Asia: "de-dollarization" is accelerating and the renminbi is being embraced!
① With last month's unpredictable tariff policies by Trump triggering a wave of asset sell-offs in the USA, a fresh wave of "de-dollarization" is taking root in Asia... ② Multiple signs indicate that the demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar is rising among banks and brokers in the Asia region, as trade tensions have added urgency to the shift towards de-dollarization that has been happening for many years.
Following the "new king of bonds," Goldman Sachs also predicts that inflation in the USA will reach 4% this year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that by Christmas, the inflation rate in the USA may reach 4%, while Commodity inflation could surge to 6%-8%. Shortly after the Federal Reserve announced to hold steady on May 7th, and after the press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital also stated, "Given the current situation, the overall CPI increase by the end of this year could reach the '4' threshold."
Yields Jump as Traders Move Into Equities After Trump Says 'Go Out and Buy Stock Now'
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 8
SA Analysts Share Opinions on the Latest FOMC Rate Decision
Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve again for not lowering interest rates, but this time did not call for firing Powell.
① The Federal Reserve announces that it will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the third consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged; ② Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media, stating that he is "too late" and "clueless," but added that he "still really likes him."
Jobless Claims Fall in Latest Week, With No Sign of Recession or Layoffs
Q1 US Nonfarm Productivity Falls as Expected, Unit Labor Costs Jump
U.S. Productivity, Secret Sauce of Economy, Falls for First Time in Almost Three Years
Powell's stance of "not rushing to cut interest rates" has triggered a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as the market reassesses the Federal Reserve's policy path.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there would be no hasty reduction of borrowing costs, traders reduced their bets on Fed interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields on Thursday.
Premature Fed Rate Cut Could Push 10-Year Treasury Yields Higher -- Market Talk
Daxin Bank: Maintains a neutral rating on US stocks and expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as July or September.
The Federal Reserve remains inactive once again.
Fed Won't Commit on Rate-Cut Path Before Tariff-Pause Ends -- Market Talk
Sibori Investment Management: The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until September or later. Bullish on the prospects of high-quality Bonds.
The bank believes that the next possible time window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will be in September, or even later. The Federal Reserve itself expects to cut rates only twice this year, while the market anticipates three cuts.
Trump wants to amend AI Chip export controls? The U.S. Department of Commerce: Simplifying the 'Biden rules' is beneficial for innovation!
① A spokesperson for the USA Department of Commerce stated that President Trump plans to lift the restrictions on the export of advanced AI Chips instituted during the Biden administration, claiming that Biden's rules are overly complex and will hinder innovation in the USA; ② In January of this year, Biden released the "AI Diffusion Export Control Framework," establishing a "three-tier licensing system" for AI Chips, which limits the amount of advanced AI Chips accessible to various countries and regions.
Treasury Yields Wobble as Fed Reaffirms Its Data Dependence -- Market Talk
March US Consumer Credit Posts Larger-Than-Expected Rebound
US10Y Slips After Federal Reserve Warns of Potential Stagflation
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 7