This is the non-farm data that the market is most eager to see! The USA added 177,000 jobs, reinforcing the "soft landing" path, and the expectations for interest rate cuts remain strong.
In April, employment growth in the USA was strong, and the unemployment rate remained stable, indicating that the uncertainty of the trade policies led by Donald Trump has not had a substantial impact on hiring plans.
Trump's tariff "bomb" triggers economic recession alerts, with April job growth in the USA potentially hitting the brakes sharply.
Trump's tariff "bomb" is igniting uncertainty in the USA economy! Data released on Friday (May 2nd) may show that the USA's employment growth in April has significantly slowed due to the impact of aggressive tariff policies. Although businesses are still stockpiling labor to keep the market active, economists warn that if the policy deadlock continues, the risk of economic recession will sharply increase. 1. Tariff Shockwave: Businesses in "paralysis mode". On April 2nd, Trump announced a 145% tariff on Commodities from major Asian countries, triggering a global trade war, leading companies to rush to import before the tariffs take effect, resulting in a contraction in first-quarter GDP. Economists point directly to the policy.
It is estimated that the USA will add 135,000 non-farm jobs in April, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
The median increase in non-farm employment is projected to be 135,000 in April 2025. If the actual growth is 135,000, it will indicate a decrease compared to last month and will also be lower than the 12-month average of 156,800. In March 2025, non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the estimated median of 130,000. In the past 12 months, non-farm employment surpassed the estimated median in 5 months and fell below it in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), non-farm employment exceeded the estimated median 57% of the time.
Key employment data is about to be released. Is the USA's economic outlook hanging by a thread?
The USA Department of Labor will release the April non-farm employment report, and the market is highly focused on this data, attempting to determine whether the USA economy is temporarily affected by tariff policies or is heading towards a more serious long-term decline.
In April, the USA's ISM manufacturing PMI experienced the largest contraction in five months, with the output index reaching the lowest level since May 2020.
Due to a decrease in Orders and the impact of tariffs, the USA's ISM Manufacturing PMI Index for April is 48.7, with an expectation of 47.9 and a previous value of 49. In an uncertain economic environment, both demand and output are declining, and employment is continuously contracting. The rise in costs due to tariffs has accelerated price increases, leading to a backlog of new Orders, slower supply deliveries, and increased inventory.
Is a rate cut imminent? The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the market has sent a signal to the Federal Reserve.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated in an interview with Fox Business Channel that the US debt market is sending clear signals indicating that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates.
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